markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.83%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=65.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.81%

Polymarket top market 'Todi: Filippo Romano vs Massimo Giunta': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IK Sirius win on 2026-08-10?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5)': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: IK Sirius (-1.5)': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Level UP - Game 2 Winner': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5': YES=48.00%