markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,692 events on 2026-08-10role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

← prev day2026-08-10next day →all history

2026-08-10Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=81.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Alexandr Binda
Polymarket top market 'Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Alexandr Binda': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=95.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 10?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=94.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Polymarket top market 'Will GameStop acquire eBay?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=91.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket