markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=98.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=96.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Brownsburg: Colton Smith vs Felix Gill
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Colton Smith vs Felix Gill': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=77.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=98.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 12?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 12?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Level UP vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=73.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs London Spirit': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=74.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Level UP vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg: Niels McDonald vs Eduardo Ribeiro': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 12?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Spirit vs JiJieHao (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=98.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: EDward Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: EDward Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket