markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,669 events on 2026-08-13role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-13Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=10.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket
2026-08-13LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 13?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 13?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 13?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 13?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 14?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13LoL: The Otter Side vs NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: The Otter Side vs NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS - Game 1 Winner': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will CF América win on 2026-08-13?
Polymarket top market 'Will CF América win on 2026-08-13?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=97.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 13?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 13?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=12.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=98.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 13?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 13?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Brownsburg: Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic
Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=73.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=19.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=98.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-13Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket