markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=73.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?': YES=66.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?': YES=24.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=31.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=41.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=36.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first AGI be a large language model?': YES=63.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?': YES=74.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?': YES=61.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?': YES=36.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?': YES=37.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)': YES=87.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?': YES=30.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=43.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before October 1st 2027?': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?': YES=21.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before September 15th 2027?': YES=20.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=6.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?': YES=44.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?': YES=7.46%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=7.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=21.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=8.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=68.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=4.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=73.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=10.58%