markets

Manifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=23.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=42.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=65.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=40.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=68.45%

Polymarket top market 'PAOK vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?': YES=67.70%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'FC Midtjylland vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?': YES=7.60%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Liquid vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-20?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5': YES=35.00%