signal type · other
competitive position signal
Every published competitive position signal signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh competitive position signal calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
15
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a competitive position signal signal?
A competitive position signal signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged competitive_position_signal by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published competitive position signal signal
2026-07-15 · ASML · up · low
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of June 19, 2026, indicate strong confidence in ASML maintaining its...
2026-06-26 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate very low confidence in SMIC surpassing TSMC in semiconductor...
2026-06-26 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple prediction market odds on Manifold Markets suggest weak near-term competitive positioning for SMIC.
2026-06-26 · SMIC · down · low
Prediction markets on Manifold show low confidence that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.6%), 2028 (15.4%), or 2033...
2026-06-25 · SMIC · down · low
Prediction markets on Manifold suggest low confidence in SMIC's ability to compete with TSMC in advanced nodes.
2026-06-23 · CERE · down · low
On 2026-06-23, the prediction market Manifold Markets showed only 3.71% consensus that Cerebras will become a serious...
2026-06-22 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will surpass TSMC or reach 3nm process...
2026-06-22 · CERE · down · low
On June 22, 2026, the Manifold Markets prediction market for 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?' showed a...
2026-06-20 · CERE · down · low
As of June 20, 2026, the prediction market Manifold Markets shows a consensus probability of just 3.71% that Cerebras...
2026-06-19 · CERE · down · low
A Manifold Markets prediction market shows only 3.71% consensus that Cerebras will become a serious competitor to...
2026-06-09 · CERE · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets as of June 9, 2026, shows only a 3.71% consensus that Cerebras will become a...
2026-06-07 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest very low market belief in SMIC's near-term...
2026-05-30 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-05-30 indicate sustained low confidence in SMIC's ability to match...
2026-05-29 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold source assess the probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC...
2026-05-28 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction questions assess the probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors...