signal type · other
competitive position signal
Every published competitive position signal signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh competitive position signal calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
3
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a competitive position signal signal?
A competitive position signal signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged competitive_position_signal by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published competitive position signal signal
2026-05-30 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-05-30 indicate sustained low confidence in SMIC's ability to match...
2026-05-29 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold source assess the probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC...
2026-05-28 · SMIC · down · low
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction questions assess the probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors...