markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=53.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=69.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=65.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=4.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=53.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Doom if AGI by 2040?': YES=45.00%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=49.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?': YES=13.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=28.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=95.04%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=43.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=13.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=88.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?': YES=69.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=31.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?': YES=29.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=15.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?': YES=92.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?': YES=14.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=13.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=52.72%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=26.78%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=36.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?': YES=74.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=64.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%