markets

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=68.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=8.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=7.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?': YES=5.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?': YES=86.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=72.52%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=26.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?': YES=86.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=42.09%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=7.43%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=3.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=63.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=49.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2034, will OpenAI, Anthropic or Mistral have a profitable fiscal year?': YES=84.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=90.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?': YES=13.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=4.97%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=8.31%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=88.76%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=84.21%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=28.00%