markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=7.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=39.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=16.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=60.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?': YES=7.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=34.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=25.86%

Manifold consensus on '🧑‍⚖️ Will The New York Times Win A Lawsuit Against OpenAI & Microsoft?': YES=54.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=38.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=4.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?': YES=5.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=25.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?': YES=64.21%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?': YES=31.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=90.99%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?': YES=59.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=75.55%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=20.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=48.46%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=75.31%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=85.12%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=66.83%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=81.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=28.00%