markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%
ARMmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?': YES=99.90%
NVDAmarket:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ryan Flaherty be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Polymarket top market 'Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=31.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?
Polymarket top market 'Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Polymarket top market 'Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=80.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?': YES=0.35%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Polymarket top market 'Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?': YES=68.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-05-30Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-05-30Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket