markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-06-02Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=99.00%
ARMmarket:manifold- 2026-06-02Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%
NVDAmarket:manifold Polymarket top market 'Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-02Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=6.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by June 15?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?': YES=62.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election': YES=84.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?': YES=25.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=35.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1': YES=68.00%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=64.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-02Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=18.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=7.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?': YES=94.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket