markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=19.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=8.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=23.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=10.50%

Polymarket top market 'South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Colombia (-1.5)': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Canada (-3.5)': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=82.00%

Polymarket top market 'Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?': YES=98.80%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Germany (-1.5)': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Didier Fuentes win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-01?': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'No one announced as next James Bond?': YES=97.80%

Polymarket top market 'South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Canada leading at halftime?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=69.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?': YES=99.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner': YES=64.00%