markets

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=64.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'An AGI will surpass Nigel Richards in traditional Scrabble by the end of 2025': YES=27.35%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=13.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before October 1st 2027?': YES=10.51%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027?': YES=10.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before September 1st 2027?': YES=9.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?': YES=5.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?': YES=13.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.86%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=17.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=90.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031?': YES=11.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=81.73%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=85.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=8.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026': YES=44.10%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2029?': YES=91.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.52%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=11.89%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=17.59%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.74%