markets

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=67.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=68.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=40.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=72.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=71.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=35.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=14.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=35.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=78.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=77.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2039?': YES=76.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=74.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=72.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=38.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=36.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=69.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?': YES=52.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft buy OpenAI?': YES=19.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=70.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?': YES=33.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?': YES=8.75%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=9.17%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030': YES=30.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=22.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?': YES=3.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?': YES=97.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=8.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=10.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%