markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs ex-GUARA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=64.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-08-04?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=26.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will GameStop acquire eBay?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=69.00%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 15?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-04?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?': YES=98.20%