markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman (co)found a GPU chip fab company by 2025?': YES=14.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=38.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=43.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2046?': YES=81.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=56.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=37.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2045?': YES=80.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=45.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=36.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?': YES=62.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=34.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=55.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=41.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=14.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?': YES=80.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=65.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?': YES=0.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=23.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?': YES=30.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?': YES=35.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=9.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI change their name before 2030?': YES=22.71%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?': YES=25.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?': YES=19.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)': YES=31.84%