markets

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=73.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?': YES=66.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?': YES=27.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=39.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=66.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?': YES=25.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=30.51%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?': YES=6.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=6.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?': YES=44.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=38.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=51.05%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=11.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?': YES=26.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.98%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=10.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=88.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=36.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=4.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%