markets

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=39.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?': YES=66.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=38.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?': YES=58.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=45.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=14.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.32%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=93.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=21.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=58.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=15.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=14.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=82.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI reaches 250GW compute capacity by EOY 2033?': YES=16.06%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2029?': YES=92.90%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=3.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?': YES=80.34%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=77.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?': YES=7.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%