markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=48.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=38.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=17.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=44.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?': YES=43.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?': YES=41.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=91.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Donald Trump be the US president when we get AGI?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=31.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=13.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=90.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=19.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=48.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=84.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?': YES=52.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=70.28%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026': YES=9.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=4.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?': YES=95.14%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=24.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?': YES=4.13%

Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=96.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%