Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Corp
spillover graph 2
market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 15%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?manifold$767
- 12%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?manifold$254
- 5%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?manifold$809resolved NO
- 15%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?manifold$767
- 12%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?manifold$254
- 5%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?manifold$809resolved NO
- 15%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?manifold$767
- 12%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?manifold$254
- 5%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?manifold$809resolved NO
- 15%Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?manifold$767
recent signals
Three Manifold markets with different target dates all show low probability that China's SMIC will manufacture...
Three Manifold markets with different target dates all show low probability that China's SMIC will manufacture semiconductors that outcompete Taiwan's TSMC.
Three Manifold markets on China's SMIC versus Taiwan's TSMC show persistently low odds that SMIC can manufacture...
Three Manifold markets on China's SMIC versus Taiwan's TSMC show persistently low odds that SMIC can manufacture semiconductors that outcompete TSMC: 4.61% for 2024, 11.64% for 2028, and 15.37% for 2033.
Prediction markets consistently assign a low probability to SMIC outcompeting TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
Prediction markets consistently assign a low probability to SMIC outcompeting TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
Three Manifold markets assess SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC over different horizons: 4.61% by 2024 (source), 11.64%...
Three Manifold markets assess SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC over different horizons: 4.61% by 2024 (source), 11.64% by 2028 (source), and 15.37% by 2033 (source).
Manifold markets put low probability on China's SMIC outcompeting TSMC: 15.37% by end-2033, 11.64% by end-2028, and...
Manifold markets put low probability on China's SMIC outcompeting TSMC: 15.37% by end-2033, 11.64% by end-2028, and 4.61% by end-2024 (source — the 2024 market appears stale/resolved no).
An analysis by SemiAnalysis (via Tom's Hardware) of SMIC's third-generation 7nm-class N+3 node, found in Huawei's Kirin...
An analysis by SemiAnalysis (via Tom's Hardware) of SMIC's third-generation 7nm-class N+3 node, found in Huawei's Kirin 9030 SoC, reveals that while the node achieves a minimum metal pitch of 32.5nm (nominally tighter than Intel 18A's ~36nm pitch used in Panther Lake) and a...
A commentary on Digitimes reports that 15 Chinese chipmakers are vying for SMIC's 7nm capacity, driven by China's AI...
A commentary on Digitimes reports that 15 Chinese chipmakers are vying for SMIC's 7nm capacity, driven by China's AI chip race (source: Digitimes).
Multiple Manifold prediction markets assign low probabilities to SMIC outcompeting TSMC by various deadlines: 4.61% by...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets assign low probabilities to SMIC outcompeting TSMC by various deadlines: 4.61% by end of 2024, 15.39% by 2028, 18.80% by 2033, and only 11% to achieve 3nm before 2026.
Multiple Manifold markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
Multiple Manifold markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low consensus probabilities for SMIC achieving key technological milestones.
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low consensus probabilities for SMIC achieving key technological milestones.
Prediction markets on Manifold show very low probabilities for SMIC achieving key technology milestones.
Prediction markets on Manifold show very low probabilities for SMIC achieving key technology milestones.
Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate persistent skepticism about SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve...
Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate persistent skepticism about SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve advanced nodes.
Prediction markets indicate a 55.85% probability that SMIC's key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave the company...
Prediction markets indicate a 55.85% probability that SMIC's key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave the company within five years (Source 5).
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate significant risk for SMIC.
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate significant risk for SMIC.
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to close the...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC.
Multiple prediction market probabilities on Manifold (sourced 2026-06-27) indicate persistent low confidence in SMIC's...
Multiple prediction market probabilities on Manifold (sourced 2026-06-27) indicate persistent low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC in advanced nodes.
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate very low confidence in SMIC surpassing TSMC in semiconductor...
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate very low confidence in SMIC surpassing TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction polls indicate extremely low market-implied probabilities for SMIC's technological...
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction polls indicate extremely low market-implied probabilities for SMIC's technological competitiveness.
Multiple prediction market odds on Manifold Markets suggest weak near-term competitive positioning for SMIC.
Multiple prediction market odds on Manifold Markets suggest weak near-term competitive positioning for SMIC.
Prediction markets on Manifold show low confidence that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.6%), 2028 (15.4%), or 2033...
Prediction markets on Manifold show low confidence that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.6%), 2028 (15.4%), or 2033 (18.8%) source.